(Contracostatimes, Sept 25, 2006) It is difficult for many of us to comprehend the intensity and vastness of China's economic development in the past decade.

Globally, China was ranked second behind the United States in 2005 by the International Monetary Fund. China's climb to the top of the economic ladder has been possible because of its double-digit annual growth rate in the past decade.

The prosperity has come at an enormous cost. Today, very few people in major Chinese cities can remember what a blue sky looks like -- something we take for granted. Polluted air has caused very serious health problems for the country.

China's environmental problem is caused mostly by low-grade, highly polluting coal-fired plants generating nearly 75 percent of the country's electricity. The problem becomes more serious when we look ahead. By 2040, China could become the largest economy in the world, surpassing the United States, according to the International Monetary Fund.

By that time, China also will surpass the United States as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gases.

A serious economic and environmental challenge that China now faces is that the country uses six times more energy than Japan and 31/2 times more energy than the United States to produce one dollar of GDP. In other words, the country is highly energy inefficient.

But here lies a major opportunity for China -- by raising its energy efficiency, China can alleviate its environmental problems and lessen its external energy dependency.

The important question: What is China doing about energy efficiency? Although the potential for energy efficiency gains is tremendous, the effort at best has been lukewarm. China has few energy utility-sponsored efficiency programs compared with the United States. Because of poor energy efficiency, China has been spending more and more of its GDP on producing electricity -- 9 percent versus 21/2 percent in the United States. This is an enormous drain on the economy, and the problem will become worse and may undermine its economic future.

China has responded by building more and more coal-burning power plants to fuel its economy. The numbers are staggering. In 2004, on average, the country built one large power plant (1,000 megawatt) every week for the entire year. This is like adding annually the entire electricity generating capacity of California.

In the 1980s and the early 1990s, China did have many successful energy efficiency programs, but they have been weakened as the country has rushed headlong into hypereconomic growth. If China were to invest in energy efficiency comparable to what we do in California (1.5 percent of electric revenue annually), that will make a major difference in its economic future, as well as its environmental future.

This magnitude of investment is well within China's reach if we consider that the country needs to invest nearly $2 trillion in new power plants and transmission by 2030, according to the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. It can be done. It is a matter of political will.

There are many promising developments in China's energy picture in renewable energy projects as well as in conservation measures.

Examples include the world's largest power plant, the controversial Three Gorges Dam, which will be completed by 2009 with annual power generation capacity nearly equal to that of California.

Another example is the world's largest wind farm near Beijing, which is to be completed by 2008, when the country hosts the summer Olympics.

Also, in 2005, China enacted its first nonresidential building code.

According to Clark Bisel, the senior engineer of Flack & Kurtz, a worldwide engineering firm based in San Francisco, who routinely travels to China to work with building owners and architects there, "the nonresidential building code is relatively well-structured and well intentioned. However, in application it is poorly understood, and certainly not integrated into the design process at this time."

As one of the leading high-tech regions of the world, the Bay Area can play a major role in solving China's problem by becoming the center for developing and exporting renewable energy technology to China.

We all have a stake in China's economic and environmental future. If the extraordinary Chinese economy falters, it means trouble for the world economy as well.

Source:contracostatimes
tag:China economy