(Bloomberg, Oct 26, 2006) Hong Kong's export growth probably cooled for a second month in September as U.S. demand for Chinese goods shipped through the city eased.

Overseas sales rose 9 percent after gaining 9.9 percent in August, according to the median forecast of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government will release trade figures at 4:15 p.m. local time today.

``We expect slower trade growth in September in line with China,'' said Denise Yam, an economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong, which serves as a trade hub for mainland China, may suffer as a slowdown in the U.S. economy curbs throughput at its ports. Growth in China's overseas sales moderated last month, and Taiwan this week reported the weakest growth in export orders since July 2005.

The city's re-exports -- products made elsewhere and shipped through its port -- rose 12 percent last year to $273 billion. Hong Kong had gross domestic product of $178 billion in 2005.

U.S. consumer spending is losing momentum as falling house prices limit homeowners' ability to extract equity from their properties. Retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.4 percent last month following a 0.1 percent increase in August, the Commerce Department said Oct. 13.

Container volume in Hong Kong, the world's second-busiest port after Singapore, rose 4.1 percent last month from a year earlier, slowing from 11.3 percent in August, the Port Development Council said Oct. 16. China's export growth slowed to 30.6 percent last month from 32.8 percent in August, and its imports also rose at a weaker pace.

The city also faces stronger competition from upgraded mainland ports. PSA International Pte, the world's second-largest container terminal operator, will spend 6.6 billion yuan ($835 million) to expand Tianjin's port, the National Development and Reform Commission, China's planning ministry, said Oct. 10.

Imports likely rose 11.5 percent in September, the Bloomberg survey showed.

The following table shows economists' forecasts for percentage changes in Hong Kong's exports and imports in September from a year earlier.

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                                Exports   Imports
Firm                               YoY%      YoY%
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Median                             9.0%     11.5%
Average                            9.2%     11.1%
High                              10.8%     12.7%
Low                                6.0%      9.0%
Number of Forecasts                  17        17
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Action Economics                  10.0%     12.7%
Bank of America                    9.0%     11.0%
Bank of China (Hong Kong)         10.8%     12.6%
Bank of East Asia                  9.0%     10.0%
Capital Economics                  9.0%     11.5%
CIMB-GK Securities                 9.7%     11.5%
Citigroup                          9.1%     11.8%
Core Pacific-Yamaichi             10.4%     12.0%
DBS Group                          8.5%     11.3%
Deutsche Bank                      6.0%      9.0%
Forecast Ltd.                     10.5%     11.5%
Hang Seng Bank                     9.0%      9.5%
ING Groep NV                      10.5%     12.0%
JPMorgan Chase                     7.6%      9.7%
Lehman Brothers                    9.5%     12.0%
Morgan Stanley                     8.9%     10.5%
Standard Chartered                 8.5%     10.5%
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Source:Bloomberg